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    Is Castroism reformable?

    Is Castroism reformable?
    ROBERTO ÁLVAREZ QUIÑONES | Los Ángeles | 8 de Noviembre de 2016 – 11:05 CET.

    When Mikhail Gorbachev launched the reforms known as perestroika
    (restructuring) and glasnost (openness, transparency) he did not do so
    with the idea of ??doing away with the Soviet Union, but just the
    opposite: to save it from collapse, which, in the Soviet leader’s view,
    was inevitable if profound changes were not made to make socialism a
    more “democratic”, humane and economically sustainable system.

    The results, however, overwhelmed him. His series of reform measures led
    to the collapse of the Communist system in Europe and the disintegration
    of the USSR, the Federation invented by Lenin in 1922, a union imposed
    by force and composed of nations for centuries subjugated by the Russian
    Empire, going back to Ivan the Terrible (16th century) and later by
    Peter the Great in the 18th.

    The “first State of workers and peasants” (as the Bolsheviks claimed)
    was toppled by perestroika for one simple reason: socialism is not
    reformable. When one tries to thoroughly reform it he ends up
    “accidentally” dismantling it. It is not amenable to change. Rather, it
    must be pulled up from the root and discarded. The same thing happened
    in the rest of Eastern Europe, and is happening, gradually, in China and
    Vietnam.

    Unfortunately, Fidel and Raúl Castro took notes and know this all too
    well. This is very unfortunate, as the best thing that could happen in
    Cuba is the introduction of genuine reform, which would mark the
    beginning of the end of Castroism.

    But there is no Cuban Gorbachev or Deng Xiaoping. At least none in
    sight. In fact, the two brothers born in Birán have dug in their heels
    and erected a wall against any real reform. Theirs is the same phobia
    harbored by the architects of the Communist regime, to the point that
    the word “reform” does not exist in the Marxist-Leninist revolutionary
    jargon. Karl Marx forbade it, on the grounds that all “reform” was a
    bourgeois relic of 18th-century utopian socialism.

    Lenin, meanwhile, in an article published in 1913 in Pravda Truda, wrote
    that reform “in practice means the renunciation of Marxism and the
    doctrine’s replacement with bourgeois social policy.”

    Marxist scholars (they do exist, and there are many in Western
    universities) and “anti-system” activists (who now elude the word
    “Communist,” degraded by history) believe that any reform in socialism
    is a masked way to return to capitalism.

    The regime is right when it insists that Raul´s changes are not really
    reforms, but rather an “updating of Cuba’s economic model,” and that
    they include no changes to the political system, or civil liberties,
    aspects that were part of changes in Eastern Europe.

    Not enough capital is created

    The fact is that there are no substantial changes on the Island, not
    even in the economic sphere, which desperately needs a resurgent private
    sector. Despite its services, cell phones, the selling of houses and
    cars, private restaurants, easy access to travel abroad, cooperatives
    for certain services and activities, and other small-time operations,
    there is insufficient gross capital formation in the country, or value
    added that is invested instead of being consumed. And without capital
    formation and investment there is no economic growth.

    Cuba’s Foreign Trade Minister Rodrigo Malmierca actually just recognized
    this fact at the 2016 FIHAV, or Havana International Fair: “We lack high
    rates of investment, of capital creation.” Of course, he did not explain
    that it is only with truly free productive forces that sufficient
    capital can be created in a country.

    This is why the Island’s economy does not flourish. While in Cuba the
    rate of gross capital formation does not exceed an average of 9% of its
    GDP, according to the World Bank in 2014 this figure was 27% in the
    Dominican Republic, 31% in Haiti, 27% in Nicaragua and 21% in Bolivia –
    countries considered poor by the UN. With its market reform, China
    posted a figure of 46%, and Vietnam, 27%. Mongolia, a poor and former
    Communist country, came in at 35%.

    In addition, to put it in Marxian terms, services not directly linked to
    industrial production (self-employed Cubans) do not increase the volume
    of goods to be socially distributed. People do not emerge from poverty
    like that. To make matters worse, instead of expanding the changes
    undertaken, the regime has largely backtracked, and is throwing up new
    obstacles for the self-employed.

    Chinese reformist leader Deng Xiaoping’s famous phrase “To get rich is
    glorious” has been stood on its head: at the 7th Congress of the
    Communist Party in April 2016 it was declared that: “the concentration
    of property and wealth will not be permitted.” Today this backwards
    slogan is part and parcel of Castro propaganda.

    The Castros will not loosen their grip

    It’s simple: Raúl and Fidel Castro sank the country, and they’re not
    going to save it. Now elderly, they certainly are not going to allow the
    “revolution” to leave the rails laid down by Fidel. With these two alive
    there will be no reform.

    And yet, all over the world people are talking about “Raúl Castro’s
    reforms,” and many are banking on the strengthening of the “reformist
    trend” and private sector growth. They are overlooking the prohibition
    on the opening of new restaurants, the harassment of drivers, and street
    vendors, and those who sell imported clothing, and many other
    self-employed Cubans. They also expect the start of a transition to
    democracy as of 2018.

    That optimism sounds great, but clashes with two key factors: 1) the
    unique nature of the Castro regime; and 2) in no Communist country has
    reform been initiated by old-guard leadership.

    In China they began after the death of Mao Tse Tung, and in the Soviet
    Union it was with Gorbachev, a new leader not tied to the Stalinist past
    like Brezhnev, Andropov and Chernenko were. In Vietnam, Doi Moi
    (renewal) was introduced by a new generation of leaders.

    In Cuba, in addition to the Castros’ aversion to private property, there
    is another problem. When Raúl steps down as president of Cuba in 2018,
    he will remain the First Secretary of the PCC (official dictator), a
    position for which he was tapped seven months ago at the Congress of the
    CCP, for another five years.

    The general has not even hinted that he will relinquish his pharaoh-like
    position in 2018. He could do so when, at age 90, he completes his
    second term at the helm of the PCC, in 2021. But surely Fidel has
    “guided him” and suggested that, as long as his health allows, he ought
    to remain at the head of the “revolution” to preserve, until the last
    minute, the legacy of Moncada and the Sierra Maestra.

    If Raúl remains the leader of the PCC until 2018, the new president of
    Cuba will be a puppet of his, like Osvaldo Dorticós was for Fidel Castro
    from 1959 to 1976, the year in which the Commander took over as
    President of the newly-created Council of State.

    And if he abandons the Party office in 2018, or in 2021, he would still
    remain behind the scenes as the regime’s political and military “guide,”
    like Deng Xiaoping was in China, who actually continued to run his
    country until his death at the age of 93, long after he had resigned.

    If the General passes away before these dates, supreme
    political/military power would pass to someone in his chain of
    subordinates who is already groomed for it, this group being composed of
    some of his relatives, the leadership of the Armed Forces, and some
    civilian members of the PCC elite.

    Whether there will be reform then remains to be seen. Of course, there
    could be some unforeseen chain of events not even envisaged today (this
    is almost always the case) that could trigger the end of the Cuban
    nightmare.

    In short, the subject is complex and controversial. But, for now, I
    cannot see how Castroism is reformable. I wish someone would soon try to
    “improve” it, and thoroughly.

    Source: Is Castroism reformable? | Diario de Cuba –
    www.diariodecuba.com/cuba/1478599522_26557.html